The back-to-school shopping season in the United States is projected to take a noticeable downturn, with total spending expected to fall to $31.2 billion, according to the 2023 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey. One of the most significant shifts is a 14% year-over-year drop in clothing expenditures, reflecting tighter household budgets and ongoing economic pressures. For K–12 students, average spending is anticipated to decrease by 10%, bringing the estimated cost per student to $597.
As families continue to grapple with higher prices, shoppers are expected to prioritize retailers offering aggressive discounts and value-driven options. Mass merchants appear to hold the strongest appeal, with 80% of surveyed parents planning to shop at major retail chains. Meanwhile, 60% anticipate purchasing from online retailers, and 33% expect to visit off-price stores or dollar stores to stretch their budgets further.
Interestingly, cash has emerged as the preferred payment method for many families. Experts suggest this trend may be tied to high interest rates and efforts to avoid credit card debt.
Inflation Shapes Spending Priorities
More than 18 months of elevated inflation have dramatically influenced household financial habits. Over the past two years, the cost of basic school supplies rose by 23.7%, putting additional pressure on families across income brackets. As a result, parents are becoming more strategic and selective in their purchases, focusing on essential items while cutting back where possible.
Despite financial challenges, there is still a strong willingness to invest in quality. Six in ten parents surveyed said they would pay more for products they believe are higher-end or longer lasting. This preference opens opportunities for retailers offering durable or premium school supplies.
Earlier Shopping, Shifting Behaviors
Parents are also shopping earlier than in past seasons. An estimated 59% plan to finish their back-to-school purchases by the end of July, compared to 53% the previous year. Many believe the best deals appear earlier in the summer, prompting them to move quickly to secure savings.
In terms of shopping preferences, 74% expect to make their purchases in stores, while 56% plan to shop online. Additionally, undecided shoppers represent a significant potential revenue boost—worth roughly $6.3 billion—for retailers able to capture their attention.
Sustainability Takes a Back Seat, but Quality still Matters
While sustainability has been a growing focus in previous years, interest has softened. Only 35% of parents intend to purchase eco-friendly back-to-school products, down from 50% in 2022. However, families committed to sustainability tend to spend more—an average of 36% more—suggesting retailers still have an opportunity to appeal to this niche.
Parents remain willing to splurge selectively. In fact, 57% say their children can convince them to spend more on clothing, despite overall efforts to save.
